Spot Runners

the Runners list's orderings (freshest, fastest, earliest, deepest) are views of the list; none was tested as predictive [in-sample]; earliest lists the members at or above their trigger close first (lowest lateness first), then those under it at the last 1h close

distances: every chart gutter gives a level's price and its distance from the live price (level vs live, as every level on the board); chips and cards give the live price against a level in words (above / below)

exit rules on the RUNNING triggers (325 triggers 2026-07-20..2026-09-20): mean net % per trigger, entry at the next 1h open after the trigger bar, 0.2% round trip, 168 h cap; 'minus hold 168 h' = the paired difference per trigger; SE clustered by trigger UTC date; a rule 'better than the others' needs > 3 SE (19 exits tested); none reached 2 SE

entry lag: the same exit rule entered 1 / 4 / 12 / 24 h after the next open minus at it, paired per trigger, % per trigger; the waiting chips give the median price move while waiting

early-entry signals S1-S5 over the whole universe (2026-08-06 20:00 → 2026-09-21 02:00, 340 symbols): 7d forward return minus the same-hour universe mean (7d excess), SE clustered by UTC date; S5 rank leap, 29 Aug–21 Sep only: 2026-08-29 11:00 → 2026-09-21 02:00 (second of the window's two periods), 22 days

chase buckets: S1 speed events split by % above the 20-day low at the signal (<= +40%, +40-100%, > +100%), 7d excess over the same-hour universe mean; '-15% before +30%' = share whose low reached -15% before the high reached +30% within 14 d

pump anatomy of the RUNNING triggers (325 triggers 2026-07-20..2026-09-20): peak timing, extension and give-back within 7 d of the peak; retrace bands p50 27.91% / p75 35.23% / p90 50.24%

runner evidence: in-sample, one regime, 2026-07-20..2026-09-20 triggers; thin under n 30; |mean| < 2 SE none; ≥ +2 SE positive; ≤ −2 SE negative

SURGE: 24 h close change >= +20% and 24 h quote volume >= 3x the prior 7-day daily average

LOWRUN: close >= 1.30x the 10-day low, with that low set within the last 72 h

trigger: SURGE or LOWRUN on a completed 1h bar, 24 h quote volume >= $400K, one per symbol per 168 h

RUNNING: last completed 1h close at or above both the trigger close and the trail level

COOLING: last completed 1h close below the trail level or below the trigger close

trail level: highest high since the trigger (the trigger close, then the highs of the bars after the trigger bar) minus 3x ATR(14, 1h), ratchets up only (TRAIL_1H_3)

dropped: 168 h after the trigger, or a 1h low back at the 10-day low the run started from

lateness: % above the 20-day low (480 1h bars); bands +40% / +100% as the entry study measured, on speed-signal entries at the signal hour (24 h change in the top 3% that hour); a member below its trigger close reads 'below trigger' instead of a band

below trigger: the last completed 1h close is under the trigger close (COOLING), so its % above the 20-day low fell with the price; a low lateness here is not an early run, and the early / +40-100% / late buckets (measured at speed-signal hours) do not describe it; decided at the 1h close, as the status (a live tick only moves the distance to the trigger close)

retrace: % below the RETRACE high, which uses the exit study's own peak definition (the highest 1h high from the trigger bar itself through 168 h, the trigger bar's wick included), the same peak the 7 d post-peak retrace p50 / p75 / p90 were measured from (the trail level keeps its own highest high)

A = recorded by this step within 2 h of the bar close; C = replayed later from Binance 1h klines

recon: rebuilt on the first run (or when a symbol joins the $400K universe) by replaying up to 1,000 1h klines, the 168 h refractory chain from the first evaluable bar (about 31 days back); its RUNNING on / off are kept for the chart history (60 days at most), marked C; not seen live

runner history (the magenta chart markers) is complete from the first run's replay start; before that date the charts carry no runner markers, which is not the same as no trigger

symbols whose name is not plain A-Z / 0-9 are left out of the list: the live price stream, the Watch page and the chart history cannot carry them

all figures in-sample, one bull regime (breadth ~91%), 0.2% round-trip costs; no holdout

outcome-conditioned view, post-hoc and not knowable live: each exit rule's mean on the triggers grouped by how far they ran within 7 d (MFE); tight trails lose less on the triggers that never ran and keep little of the big runners, and the two cancel (only 16% reach +50%)