Setup 5111cf0f49
| id | 5111cf0f496345b48385dd956612c08d0df4a4f9bfcf45b24c0baa7234e7228e |
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| side | AVOID |
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| state | PAPER |
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| exit | E6 |
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| family | T05 |
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| generator | R:avoid |
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| flags | – |
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| freeze UTC | 2026-10-10 07:23 |
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| state since UTC | 2026-10-12 00:30 |
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| α_j | 0.0025 |
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| θ̃ pp | -1.288 |
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| book | SHORT |
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| risk per trade % | 0.25 |
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Rule
| feature | code | pctl from | pctl to |
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| hourly volume / 7d median at least m | T05.m10 | – | – |
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| vol of vol 30d (cross-section pctl) | volvol30d:Q5 | 80 | 100 |
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| rank by listing age, smallest first, keep top K | age-5 | – | – |
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| universe | U1 | – | – |
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| max events per stamp (ω cap) | 5 | – | – |
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Exit
| exit | TP % | SL % | H bars | entry |
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| E6 | – | -25 | 72 | t+2 |
MINE
| gate | input | result | value |
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| M1 | sum_w | PASS | 1.665e+04 |
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| episodes | | 5463 |
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| coins | | 379 |
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| weeks | | 176 |
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| M2 | m | PASS | -0.03557 |
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| zbar | | -0.04456 |
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| M3 | t_m | PASS | -10.91 |
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| tau | | 5.803 |
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| M4 | dlr | PASS | 0.09193 |
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| t_dlr | | 11.47 |
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| M6 | n_blocks | PASS | 7 |
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| nonpositive | | 0 |
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| worst_t | | 2.249 |
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| M7 | base_T1 | PASS | -0.02631 |
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| base_T2 | | -0.03391 |
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| base_T3 | | -0.04633 |
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| btc30_neg | | -0.042 |
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| btc30_pos | | -0.02989 |
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| M8 | max_coin_share | PASS | 0.009547 |
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| t_drop_top5_coins | | -10.22 |
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| t_drop_best4_weeks | | -10.22 |
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| M9 | m_cost2 | PASS | -0.03601 |
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| ybar_cost2 | | -0.04951 |
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| M10 | u2_sum_w | PASS | 1.359e+04 |
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| u2_m | | -0.03983 |
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| M11 | m_lag3 | PASS | -0.03385 |
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| m | | -0.03557 |
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| missing | | NO |
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| M12 | n | PASS | 3 |
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| min | | 0.006619 |
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| median | | 0.0225 |
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| M13 | fdr | PASS | 0 |
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| Σω | events | coins | weeks | episodes | m pp | t_m | z̄ pp | ȳ pp | dWR pp | dLR pp | tilt pp | SE_wk pp | SE_coin pp |
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| 16,654 | 16,718 | 379 | 176 | 5,463 | -3.56 | -10.91 | -4.46 | -4.91 | +0.00 | +9.19 | -9.19 | 0.30 | 0.33 |
Half-years
| block | Σω | m pp | t | weeks |
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| 2021H1 | 171 | -6.30 | -3.43 | 20 |
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| 2021H2 | 2,386 | -4.04 | -4.25 | 27 |
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| 2022H1 | 2,659 | -4.60 | -6.89 | 27 |
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| 2022H2 | 3,026 | -3.60 | -4.12 | 27 |
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| 2023H1 | 2,565 | -2.07 | -2.25 | 27 |
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| 2023H2 | 3,452 | -3.43 | -5.21 | 27 |
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| 2024H1 | 2,395 | -3.45 | -4.27 | 26 |
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Regimes
| regime | Σω | m pp | t |
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| base_T1 | 5,337 | -2.63 | -7.06 |
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| base_T2 | 5,824 | -3.39 | -5.95 |
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| base_T3 | 5,493 | -4.63 | -8.60 |
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| btc30_neg | 7,811 | -4.20 | -10.33 |
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| btc30_pos | 8,843 | -2.99 | -6.91 |
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Universe tiers
| tier | Σω | m pp |
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| U1 | 16,654 | -3.56 |
| U2 | 13,586 | -3.98 |
Top coins
| rank | sym | Σω·zm |
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| 1 | REQUSDT | – |
| 2 | MLNUSDT | – |
| 3 | REIUSDT | – |
| 4 | NMRUSDT | – |
| 5 | VGXUSDT | – |
CONFIRM
| batch | q | p | BH | m pp | t | z̄ pp | ȳ pp | dWR pp | dLR pp | tilt pp | Σω | weeks | U2 m pp | U2 Σω | pass |
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| 1 | 0.10 | 0.02079 | YES | -1.54 | -2.04 | -2.29 | -2.37 | +0.00 | +8.60 | -8.60 | 6,057 | 61 | -1.62 | 5,153 | PASS |
REPLAY veto
| events | Σω | m pp | t | t_wk | pass |
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| 7,232 | 7,178 | -1.55 | -1.86 | -1.86 | PASS |
Forward weekly x_w
Forward Z path
| looks wk | 13 | 26 | 39 | 52 | 78 | 104 |
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| boundary Z | – | – | – | -4.09 | -3.31 | -2.82 |
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| futility Z | 1.0 | -0.0 | – | -0.5 | – | – |
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| weeks elapsed | 1 |
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| weeks with events | 1 |
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| Σω | 79 |
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| m pp | -3.28 |
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| SE pp | – |
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| Z | – |
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| WR % | 0.0 |
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| ȳ pp | -9.50 |
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| next look wk | 13 |
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| boundary Z | – |
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| week UTC | Σω | x_w pp |
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| 2026-10-12 | 79.0 | -3.28 |
Event history
Transitions
| UTC | from | to | gen |
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| 2026-10-10 06:11 | PROPOSED | SCREENED | G0001 |
| 2026-10-10 06:11 | SCREENED | CANDIDATE | G0001 |
| 2026-10-10 07:23 | CANDIDATE | FROZEN | G0001 |
| 2026-10-12 00:30 | FROZEN | PAPER | admit-2026-10-12 |
Book trades
| sym | decision UTC | exit UTC | reason | R | net pp |
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| RSRUSDT | 2026-10-12 08:00 | 2026-10-15 09:00 | TIME | +0.32 | +14.08 |
| CKBUSDT | 2026-10-12 08:00 | 2026-10-15 09:00 | TIME | +0.29 | +9.07 |
| WUSDT | 2026-10-12 08:00 | 2026-10-15 09:00 | TIME | +1.67 | +50.66 |
| GTCUSDT | 2026-10-12 12:00 | 2026-10-15 13:00 | TIME | +0.79 | +27.75 |
| LUMIAUSDT | 2026-10-12 12:00 | 2026-10-15 13:00 | TIME | +0.34 | +10.26 |
| EPICUSDT | 2026-10-15 12:00 | 2026-10-18 13:00 | TIME | +0.04 | +0.71 |
| BLURUSDT | 2026-10-15 16:00 | 2026-10-18 17:00 | TIME | +0.35 | +13.22 |
| GENIUSUSDT | 2026-10-15 16:00 | 2026-10-18 17:00 | TIME | +0.17 | +4.99 |
| SOPHUSDT | 2026-10-15 16:00 | 2026-10-18 17:00 | TIME | +0.56 | +16.90 |
Spec JSON
| atoms | volvol30d:Q5 |
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| cap | 5 |
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| exit | E6 |
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| fv | F1 |
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| gv | 1 |
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| rank | age-5 |
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| side | avoid |
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| trigger | T05.m10 |
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| universe | U1 |
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| veto | none |
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Research data, updated hourly · not financial advice